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Blog Entry 1 of 8 WebViking's Corner
I'm a libertarian/conservative who believes the first precept of good government should be "Do no harm!" That said I recognize that, as distasteful as it is, sometimes government is necessary and can do good. I'll be talking mainly about national politics, with the occasional odd foray into local issue.

Blog Url: http://denver.yourhub.com/~WebViking

Bloomberg looms
Contributed by: John Newman   on 6/20/2007

NYC Mayor Mike Bloomberg revoked his Republican Party membership yesterday in a move that has been widely reported as his first step towards mounting an Independent bid for president.

Ross Perot's Independent campaigns in 1992 and 1994 were widely credited of helping Bill Clinton win his two campaigns for President.

If Bloomberg does run, will he have the same effect in helping another Clinton, Hillary, win the Presidency? Bloomberg has reportedly told associates that he would be willing to spend up to a billion dollars of his own personal fortune to run a campaign for President. So instead of helping Hillary win, could he actually win himself?

Bloomberg in fact has many similarities to Perot, both are self-made men who made billions of dollars in industry. Both are opinionated and eager to speak their minds. Both are short. But there the comparison ends.

While Perot ran his campaign on a sort of folksy populism that played well in the heartland, Bloomberg is the epitome of the big city, well-connected insider pol. And forget about Bloomberg's nominal identity as a Republican, he is, was and always will be a liberal Democrat.

The only reason he switched to the Republican Party in 2001 was to win the job as mayor of New York. No real Republican was going to run for the job, and Bloomberg saw a way to avoid the catfight that is known as the Democratic primary for the privilege of running for mayor as the Democratic candidate. Simple expediency is the only reason that up until yesterday, Bloomberg, was a Republican.

Look at Bloomberg's positions: pro-gay marriage, pro-abortion, pro-stem cell research, anti-gun, pro-tax, pro-government, pro-spend spend spend. In fact, Bloomberg's position on some issues makes the current crop of Democratic candidates appear almost right-wing in comparsion.

Lately, the national Democratic Party has downplayed their position on gun control. reversing an almost 50-year campaign against the private ownership of guns in this country. Why? It's a loser of a position in national politics.

So along comes Bloomberg who has been the most rabid anti-gun political figure we've seen in the last decade. How has Bloomberg fought to keep guns out of the hands of private citizens? He's formed a coalition of big-city liberal mayors that go after small towns and municipalities where gun shows are held, or have large volume gun stores and sued the pants off of them for allowing gun sales in their jurisdictions. The reasoning behind these lawsuits is tenuous at best. A gun used to commit a crime in New York City was traced back to a gun show in SmallTown, USA, so Bloomberg's coalition of lawyers helicopters in and starts suing anyone and everyone. The intent is not to recover damages, the intent is to intimidate the small towns from allowing gun shows and gun stores to operate in their jurisdiction.

How well is that going to play in the Heartland?

Bloomberg's hope has got to be to grab the middle, he'll portray himself as pro-business, although pro-business has different meanings. Bloomberg likes business in New York, preferably big business because he can tax the hell out of them. He's shown nothing but disdain for small businesses, from his anti-smoking crusade against the bars and restaurants, to his plan to force all the cab companies to buy hybrid cars. It will be interesting to see Bloomberg's position on trade. I get the feeling that everytime someone brings up the subject of globalization, Bloomberg will start spouting off about the need to shower billions and billions of more dollars on the public education system in this country.

In the end, I think he will end up squeezing the Democratic candidate out into the fringe of the loony left, because Bloomberg is going to come off as a lot more competent on the issues of business, trade and the economy than any Democrat currently running could hope to be. If Bloomberg runs, it throws the whole Northeastern part of the country into play. New York, Massachusetts, Connecticut, New Jersey, Maryland, Delaware, Vermont, and Pennsylvania have all been pretty solidly Democratic over the last few Presidential election. A Bloomberg candidacy forces a Democratic candidate to spend a lot more time in those states than otherwise would need to be spent. Bloomberg would have a much harder time having the same effect on a Republican candidate in a stronghold red state like Texas that he would to a Democratic candidate in the ultimate blue stronghold state, New York.

So could Bloomberg, instead of shifting the race to the Republicans, maybe actually win? That's tough. As Ross Perot found out in 1992, it's hard to even get on the ballot as an Independent candidate. Every state has different requirements and different deadlines to meet. That said, Bloomberg's fortune can hire a lot of help. So assume he gets on the ballot in every state, assume he becomes a media darling, assume he gets in the debates, and assume he doesn't make a huge mistake. It's still an uphill battle. In 1992, Ross Perot got over 18% of the popular vote and didn't win one electoral college vote. Out of 50 states, Perot only came in second place in two. In Maine he beat George Bush by 304 votes, but fell short of Clinton by over 50,000 votes. In Utah, he pounded Clinton by 20,000 votes and was still 120,000 votes away from catching Bush. The other 48 states? Ross Perot was third.

It's awful hard for an Independent candidate to win, but as Perot showed in 1992, and even Nader in 2000, an Independent candidate can certainly affect the outcome.


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Showing 1-3 of 3 comments
Submitted By: Chris Rodriguez
posted on 6/23/2007 @ 6:15:49 PM
Rated Blog Entry
Now, I don't know what makes this guy tick, but will he bother to run knowing he won't win? Will his ego be massaged enough to pick off a third of the popular vote and no Electoral votes? Don't know. All he'll do is put some blue states in play, especially New York, and especially if it's Clinton vs. Giuliani vs. Bloomberg. I'd love to see 4 serious parties, but it ain't here yet.
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Submitted By: Chris Rodriguez
posted on 6/23/2007 @ 6:10:06 PM
Rated Blog Entry
I'd say about the only thing worse than flip flopping on any issue, is this flipping of political parties for personal and political gain. Once, that's one thing. But the way this guy's done it, pretty fishy and won't sell well. I don't think he'll pick up a single state, including the Northeast one's you mention. In the end, people want their vote to count, and third party candidates don't give that feeling to voters. Sad, but true. Do you think those usual blue states want to wake up the next morning and realize they just handed the election to a Republican? Don't think so.
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Submitted By: Bing Van Gorden
posted on 6/22/2007 @ 4:43:12 PM
Rated Blog Entry
Good post. A good representaiton of Bloomberg's views and political history. If he gets the nod for the new unity movement and names a more moderate Republican as his running mate he might be able to take a third of the vote. If any time in our history would present an opening for an idependent to win, now looks as good as any. People want change, Bloomberg is attractive to pro business Republicans and populist Democrats. The gun issue maybe the weak link. Perot would have taken more votes had he not flaked during the race and "quit." Boy was he right about NAFTA.
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Showing 1-3 of 3 comments
CONTRIBUTOR INFORMATION

John Newman

Northglenn , CO

John Newman has posted 8 blog entries and 33 comments since joining on 9/27/2005. John Newman 's average blog rating is 3.64.
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