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The decisive Hispanic vote
Contributed by: Harold Lamport on 6/6/2008

To commemorate Cuban Independence Day in late May, both Barack Obama and John McCain gave speeches that dealt with future US-Latin American relations.While some of their comments were narrowly directed to the pivotal Cuban vote in south Florida, the differences in emphasis were more clearly seen in the broader contours of their respective hemispheric visions.

With the importance of the electoral vote in states such as Nevada, New Mexico and Colorado Latin America will most certainly come to the fore again and may well prove decisive in altering the vote of the Hispanic population which broke 56-44%in favor of the Democrats in 2004.

Somewhat surprisingly, differences between the McCain and Obama positions were not greatly pronounced with regard to Cuba. Both maintained that the economic embargo of Cuban that has been a linchpin of US foreign policy since the 1960s should remain in place.Both see this position as key to convincing Cuba that only visible movement toward democratization on the island will be recognized and rewarded by the United States.McCain accused Obama of hardening his Cuba position in recent months and of being far too inclined to sit down with Raul Castro without preconditions.Obama countered by saying any talks of his would have adequate preparation and by offering Cuban Americans increased opportunities to visit their homeland and to send remittances to relatives still there.

In their more sweeping views of the continent, both Obama and McCain urged the US not to adopt a condescending big brother mentality towards our southern neighbors, that each said has characterized our view of them of late.Obama singled out the excesses of Iraqi policy to criticize the level of attention the US has paid to Latin America during the Bush years, and he stated his administration would reverse this trend.With language sounding much like the Kennedy Alliance for Progress as well as FDR's Good Neighbor Policy, Obama declared himself in favor of bottom-up change in Latin America.While he conceptually connectedeconomic security for Latin America's masses to border security for the US, he was woefully short on specific measures designed to achieve this new, mutually beneficial economic equilibrium.

Hugo Chavez of Venezuela stands to become a flashpoint of disagreement in the campaign ahead.Both denounce his anti-democratic instincts and policies with Obama suggesting that our failure to robustly counter Chavez's continental appeal has allowed him to make political inroads in places as diverse as Honduras and Bolivia.Citing growing commercial ties between Latin American and China and Iran, Obama wants to rekindle the special relationship and esteem throughout the continent that the US enjoyed after the Panama Canal treaties and before the Contra adventure of the 1980s.

Decidedly more activist in spirit than McCain, Obama envisions reviving a position of Special Envoy for Latin America, increasing the budget significantly for US consulates and USAID missions and extending the scope of the Merida Initiative beyond Mexico to include the rest of Central America.

The policy initiative that revealed the most glaring difference between Obama and McCain was with regard to the Colombia free trade agreement that awaits final US congressional approval.Is is essentially one of means and ends: to what degree the US will do business and provide security apparatus to Colombia, a nation both candidates view as vital to American regional interests given that Colombia's human rights and labor rights record has frequently been wanting.Obama seeks to condition extension of commercial benefits envisioned by the treaty to advances on these fronts.McCain meanwhile touts the material benefits the agreement will confer on a nation positioned to counter Venezuelan ascendance as being more important than hampering US support by scrutinizing its recipients.

Clearly many aspects of future US-Latin American policy will be irrevocably tied to longstanding historical patterns.It was, after all, only three months after his inauguration that President Kennedy found himself enmeshed in the Bay of Pigs plans which he had not been instrumental in formulating.

So, too, whether the foreign affairs budget develops any future wiggle room will in part depend on disengagement from our military and financial commitments in Asia.Other, less transparent actors, such as the CIA, will also have a say in the trajectory of intra-hemispheric policy.

All in all, the substance and style of the Obama-McCain differences should make US policy toward Latin America an important theme in this year's election in western states.A key to the victory may well reside in speaking to the aspirations of the hemisphere's millions as well as to the immigrants from our southern neighbors who have made the United States their home.




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CONTRIBUTOR INFORMATION

Harold Lamport

denver , CO

Harold Lamport has posted 5 stories and 1 comment since joining on 6/21/2007. Harold Lamport 's average story rating is 5.
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