By Ken Matthews

May 2, 2008

Denver, CO

Denver Barbarians kick off against Old Puget Sound Beach RFC (Seattle) at 3 pm Saturday at Dick's Sporting Goods Park in a "win or miss the Rugby Super League playoffs" match.

OPSB RFC has been a difficult opponent for the Barbarians in past years. Last year in Seattle, the Barbarians broke open a close match in the second half to win 31-7. In addition to their RSL schedule, the Seattle club plays in the Pacific Northwest against quality opposition locally both in the US and across the border in Canada. OPSB RFC has historically been a big side and promises a physical encounter this weekend.

The Barbarians (4-2 in RSL) must win and probably need to score at least 4 tries to insure their playoff participation. OPSB RFC has been mathematically eliminated from this year's RSL playoffs (1-5).

Below is an analysis by USA Rugby of the Red (Western) Conference playoff possibilities.

Red Conference

Heading into the final round of play, there is a possibility of four Red teams emerging to the post-season - Belmont Shore, OMBAC, Denver and SFGG each have 20 points or more and neither of the remaining conferences have more than one team above the 20 point mark.

After kicking off to tumultuous starts this season, Old Mission Beach Athletic Club and San Francisco Golden Gate have continued to gain momentum through week seven. Wins for both California clubs propelled them into a four-way conference tie at 4-2 with fellow RSL strong forces Belmont Shore and the Denver Barbarians.

OMBAC's 43-17 defeat over Denver bumped the San Diego club into second place in the Red standings at 21 points, just behind defending champs Belmont Shore (22), with Denver and SFGG nipping at their heels at 20 points each.

This week, OMBAC travels to Long Beach to close out the season against Belmont Shore. The San Diego squad continues to improve each week and has a shot at winning the conference if it can muscle out one more win over Belmont.

If this happens, Belmont would remain at 22 and possibly finish in fourth place in the standings, provided Denver defeats Old Puget Sound Beach and SFGG defeats Santa Monica -creating the potential for the two wild cards to emerge from the Red Conference.

Kurt Oeler of Gainline.us wrote the following:

Not for the first time will the winner of this weekend's Belmont Shore-OMBAC tilt probably settle the division, but the Super League's wild card race is more telling.

Despite the unlikelihood of the seven and eight seeds both emerging from the same division, five red conference teams -- Belmont (4-2, 22 points), OMBAC (4-2, 21), San Francisco Golden Gate (4-2, 20), the Denver Barbarians (4-2, 20), and Santa Monica (3-2-1, 15) -- are vying with each other for two guaranteed slots, and with a handful of white and blue conference teams for two at-large berths.

All save Santa Monica begin the final regular-season weekend ahead on points, but makeup games cloud the picture, particularly the postponed Chicago Griffins-Charlotte clash. The large number of possible outcomes is illustrated by the fact that a loss in Long Beach could drop current leader (and defending league champion) Belmont into fourth place and out of the playoffs.

The prospect that 4 of the 6 teams from Denver to Pacific Ocean will reach the 8-team playoffs, while a 5th finishes in the top half of the 18-team league, suggests the Super League's balance of power is tilted.

Saturday's match The bottom line for Denver is win, get a bonus point, and the Barbarians are winners or sole runners-up of the Red Conference, depending on the result of the Belmont Shore - OMBAC clash. If the Barbarians take care of their business and produce 5 table points, a tie in the Belmont Shore - OMBAC match puts Denver at the top of the table. If the Barbarians win against OPSB, the winner in the Belmont Shore - OMBAC match, slots into 1st, Denver in 2nd, San Francisco (if they beat Santa Monica) in 3rd due to losing to Denver head-to-head, and the loser of the Belmont Shore - OMBAC match in 4th.

The permutations and possibilities for play-off seeding and whether or not Denver's 25 table points will be enough to assure a home-field quarter-final will be delayed until May 10. Postponement of two matches last weekend involving Chicago Griffins (vs. Charlotte) and the Chicago Lions (vs. Washington RFC), due to weather issues in Chicago that destroyed travel plans for the squads, caused those matches to be moved to May 10. Final league standings will not be available until those May 10 matches are played.

DENVER BARBARIANS: 1 Chris Moreno, 2 Kyle Fenton, 3 Mike Kelley, 4 John Van der Giessen, 5 Mike Mangan, 6 Adam Drury, 7 Andrew Post, 8 Patrick Quinn, 9 Tyson Meek, 10 Dan Bludeau, 11 Mark Bokhoven, 12 Link Wilfley, 13 Ben Haapapuro, 14 Jody Kramer, 15 David Yavala, 16 Tim Russo, 17 Mike Landau, 18 Garrett Peterson, 19 Hayden Smith, 20 Tom Hewitt, 21 Dave Williams 22 Jake Humphrey.

Coach: David Hodges

OLD PUGET SOUND BEACH: Not available at press time.

Coach: Vilo Lino

Referee: Phil Griffith (National Panel)

Touch Judges: Tom Coburn (National Panel) and Dan Hattrup (Eastern Rockies RFU)