Blog

YourHub.com \\ Green Valley Ranch \\ Blogs \\ Sports \\ College/University \\ Football

Blog Entry 24 of 31 John's blog about EVERYTHING

This is a weekly (or more frequent) blog about what I feel like talking about. Hopefully it's local, but anything is better than nother.

Blog Url: http://denver.yourhub.com/~AdamsCountySportsBlog

TCU should be king of the MWC mountain

e-mail to a friend | print this | link to this

Contributed by: John Eisel/YourHub.com on 7/27/2007

Mountain West Conference 2007 preview

Air Force
2006 record: 4-8, 3-5 in Mountain West Conference Play
Starters returning: 10 (4 offense, 6 defense, 0 special teams)
Why fans should be happy: The Falcons have their leaders back in quarterback Shaun Carney, tailback Chad Hall and linebacker Drew Fowler. An experienced quarterback has usually boded well for Air Force in the past.
Why fans should be worried: It's a new era under new coach Troy Calhoun. The Falcons are going to go away from their patented option offense. What the offense will look like remains to be seen.
Key stat: 157.47 - Carney's pass efficiency last year, good for second in the conference. That's almost unheard of for an Air Force quarterback and gives a little encouragement as the Zoomies take to the sky more on offense.
Key game: Sept. 8 at Utah. After an opening season game against South Carolina State, the Falcons are at Utah, host conference favorite TCU and then travel to BYU and Navy. The Utah game appears to be the most winnable in that brutal early-season stretch.
Outlook: Not great. The Falcons lost a lot on both sides of the ball, and it remains to be seen how the change in offensive style affects the team. The triple-option has been as much a part of this team as the blue and silver of their uniforms.

Brigham Young
2006 record: 11-2, 8-0 MWC
Starters returning: 14 (6 offensive, 8 defensive, 0 special teams)
Why fans should be happy: The Cougars return most of a defense that allowed less than 15 points per game last year. They also get preseason conference favorites TCU and Utah at home.
Why fans should be worried: A lot of the key parts of the offense that scored 36.8 points a game are gone, including second-round NFL draft pick John Beck. However, BYU is set to have all of their starters back on the offensive line.
Key stat: 56.0 - Third-down conversion percentage for BYU, second in the nation.
Key game: Nov. 8 vs. TCU. This should decide the conference championship.
Outlook: Very good. The Cougars lose a lot of key offensive players, but they seem to grow those on trees in Provo. They bring a ton of players back on an underrated and opportunistic defense. They won't be as good as last year's team, especially without Beck at quarterback, but the conference championship should be in their site come the end of the season.

Colorado State
2006 record: 4-8, 1-7
Starters returning:20 (9 offense, 9 defense, 2 special teams)
Why fans should be happy: Workhorse Kyle Bell is back after blowing out his knee last summer. After turning the ball over way too much and losing a lot of close games, the team is a year older with more experience.
Why fans should be worried: Knee injuries are x-factors. Some players come back, others don't. No matter what, the Rams must find their way on the ground again. Also, the team hasn't had a winning season since 2003. Questions loom as to whether Sonny Lubick can bring the team back to it's dominance of the late 90s and early 00s.
Key stat: 76.5 - Average yards rushing per game for CSU last year, 113th in the nation.
Key game: Sept. 1 vs. Colorado - Except for last year, the winner of the Mile High Showdown has gone onto prosperity, while the other has floundered. A win against the Buffs would spark interest in the state and would end that horrific slide from last year. It may also answer whether Bell is back and if the defense is really improved.
Outlook: The Rams should be better than last season, but it may not matter with a much tougher non-conference schedule. After facing CU, they host Cal-Berkeley and travel to C-USA champion Houston in successive weeks. A Lubick-coached team will put up a fight, but will be watching from home during bowl season again.

New Mexico
2006 record: 6-7, 4-4 MWC
Starters returning: 19 (8 offensive, 10 defensive, 1 special teams)
Why fans should be happy: The Lobos return 18 starters from a team that rebounded from an inexcusable loss to Portland State in the opener to secure a bid in the inaugural New Mexico Bowl, including leading rusher Rodney Ferguson.
Why fans should be worried: It's uncertain whether the Lobos have enough to climb up to the top of the conference. After coach Rocky Long's first year, the Lobos have always exceeded expectations, but never reached the summit.
Key stat: 28 - Number of points (284-312) that the Lobos were outscored by over the course of the 2006 season.
Key game: Sept. 29 vs. BYU. Are the Lobos among the top of the conference or just another decent team?
Outlook: Same ole, same ole for the Lobos. They play just well enough to get into a bowl game.

San Diego State
2006 record: 3-9, 3-5
Starters returning: 16 (10 offense, 4 defense, 2 special teams)
Why fans should be happy: It's year two under the Chuck Long regime, so the players should now know what's expected of them and how things are going to work. The team also returns 10 starters on offense, including senior Kevin O'Connell, who was hampered by injuries last season, and Atiyyah Henderson, who carried the running game as a freshman.
Why fans should be worried: The offense was offensive last year, averaging just over 14 points a game. The defense wasn't much better, allowing just under 28. About the only thing SDSU did do well is defend the pass, and all of the secondary graduated and stud pass rusher Antwan Applewhite left early for the NFL, only to go undrafted.
Key stat: 5 - Streak Henderson had with games of 90 yards rushing or more last year.
Key game: Nov. 10 at UNLV. Best shot at winning a conference game, with BYU, TCU, Wyoming and New Mexico all coming to San Diego this year.
Outlook: Let's see what kind of a coach Long is, because this team doesn't look like it's going to do much in 2007.

TCU
2006 record: 11-2, 6-2
Starters returning: 18 (6 offense, 9 defense, 2 special teams)
Why fans should be happy: They return nine starters from unquestionably the best defense in the conference last year. This could be the best defensive team in the nation.
Why fans should be worried: Longtime signal-caller Jeff Ballard has moved on, leaving sophomore Marcus Jackson and redshirt freshman Andy Dalton to battle for the job. However, the quarterback position is probably the least crucial at TCU of all the MWC teams. His job is to navigate the offense and not lose games.
Key stat: 60.8 - Rushing yards per game allowed by TCU last season, second in the nation.
Key game: Nov. 8 at BYU. Yes, the Texas game is huge nationally-speaking, but the Nov. 8 game will decide the conference champion.
Outlook: If not for an early-season game against Texas, I'd be betting on the Frogs to go to a BCS Bowl Game. They still could go to a bowl if they put up a good show against the Longhorns.

UNLV
2006 record: 2-9, 1-7 MWC
Starters returning: 15 (7 offense, 7 defense, 1 special teams)
Why fans should be happy: The Rebels should have one of the best passing offenses in the conference with Rocky Hinds back and passing to Casey Flair and Ryan Wolfe, the most potent receiving combo in the conference. The Rebels also get back Beau Bell, one of the best linebackers in the conference, who missed half of last season with an ankle injury.
Why fans should be worried:Even if they bring a lot of players back, the only things UNLV was good at last year was passing and punting. Any improvement may be hampered by a brutal non-conference schedule. After a (probable) win at Utah State, the Rebs host Wisconsin, Hawaii and Utah before traveling to Nevada. UNLV's 2007 schedule is not one to build confidence on.
Key stat: 9 - Position UNLV finished in conference in scoring defense (31.83 ppg), total defense (ypg), pass defense efficiency (155.6), opponents' first downs (256), time of possession (28:46)and turnovers (-.92 per game).
Key game: Sept. 29 at Nevada. The Rebels got beat up and blown out by their in-state rivals to the north last year. Without much hope at making a bowl run, this is the game of the year.
Outlook: This team should be better, but the record may not reflect it. This team hasn't done much of anything under Mike Sanford, going 4-19 in two years and it looks like he's going to be on a very hot seat come the end of the season.

Utah
2006 record: 8-5, 5-3
Starters returning: 15 (10 offensive, 5 defensive, 2 special teams)
Why fans should be happy: The Utes get back Brian Johnson, who torched the conference back in 2005 before taking a medical leave last year after hurting his knee. He has nearly everyone back on offense to support him, in case it takes a game or two for him to get back in the swing of things.
Why fans should be worried: The non-conference slate includes at Oregon State, vs. UCLA, at Louisville and then the traditional matchup against Utah State. That has 1-3 written all over it. Luckily, the OOC are mixed in with some winnable conference games. They also lost the outstanding Eric Weddle at defensive back. 7-interception defensive backs don't come around every day.
Key stat: 337 - Yards of total offense per game Johnson averaged in 2005.
Key game: Nov. 24 at BYU. This has become the marquee rivalry in the conference, with both teams at or near the top of the conference standings the past few years. This year projects to be no different, and a conference championship could be decided in Provo.
Outlook: Provided Johnson comes back at 100 percent, the Utes should have the most potent offense in the league. However, the defense doesn't project to be as good, especially without Weddle, and the toughest schedule of all the Mountain West Conference teams leaves the Utes eeking out a bowl berth at the end of the year. With trips to BYU and TCU, a championship is very unlikely.

Wyoming
2006 record: 6-6, 5-3 MWC
Starters returning: 12 (7 offense, 5 defense, 2 special teams*)
Why fans should be happy: Quarterback Karsten Sween is back after leading the team to a 5-2 over the final part of the season and has all of his offensive weapons back. The coaches are going to take off the blinders and let him toss the ball around. The team also brings back a big chunk of a defense that thrived last year - the first time in recent memory the Pokes have had a good defense.
Why fans should be worried: The offensive and defensive lines have minimal experience. However, the offensive line wasn't that great last year, anyway and Wyoming's 3-4 defensive scheme helps cover defensive line inexperience. Also, the team is going back to their old brown and gold colors. That could be bad or good, depending on how the uniforms look.
Key stat: 95.5 -Percent of the timeWyoming's opponent scored when they entered the red zone.This undoes much of the good of the team's ninth-rated defense.
Key game: Sept. 1 vs. Virginia. The Pokes lost this game by an extra point and a questionable goal line call last season. With so many even-matched games on the Pokes' docket this season, Wyoming needs to win this game. It's the season opener, it's against a BCS opponent and officials are hoping for a big crowd (generally speaking). A win would jump start the season.
Outlook: Errr...of all the teams to predict, Wyoming is the hardest. Games against Virginia and BYU and at Ohio, San Diego State, Air Force and Colorado State could go either way. The Pokes will slide in with a bowl bid, but they could just as easily finish in the top three in the conference or out of contention for a bowl bid.
* - Jake Scott shared duties with Aric Goodman last season, but was typically not the primary kicker.

Final predictions

Team	Overall	MWC	Bowl
TCU	11-1	8-0	BCS
BYU	9-3	7-1	Las Vegas
Utah	7-5	6-2	Poinsettia
Wyoming	7-5	4-4	New Mexico
New Mexico	7-5	4-4	Armed Forces
CSU	4-8	3-5	-
AFA	4-8	2-6	-
UNLV	2-9	1-7	-
SDSU	1-10	0-8	-

***All-MWC
QB: Sean Carney, Sr., Air Force - Let's see how this looks at the end of the season with a new offensive system installed. I doubt he's going to be here at the end of the year, but you have to acknowledge what he's done.
RB: Rodney Ferguson, Jr., New Mexico - His 1,234 yards rushing was more than 234 more than anyone else in the conference.
RB: Aaron Brown, TCU - Had nearly five yards a rush while sharing time with graduated senior Lonta Hobbs.
WR: Ryan Wolfe, So., UNLV - Young pair of receivers a bright spot in what was mostly a lousy season for the Rebels.
WR: Marcus Smith, Sr., UNM - I know a lot of people picked Travis Brown for this honor, but Smith had five more touchdown catches and just about as many yards receiving.
TE: Wade Betschart, Sr., Wyoming - Few things Wyoming fans like better than a homegrown boy doing good.
OL: Sete Aulai, Sr., BYU - 2006 2nd Team All-MWC selection
OL: Matty Lindner, Sr., TCU - Named to Outland Trophy Watch List
OL: Blake Schlueter, Jr., TCU - Named to Rimington Award Watch List
OL: Jason Boone, Sr., Utah - 2006 Honorable mention All-Conference selection
OL: Robert Conley, Jr., Utah - 2006 Honorable mention All-Conference selection, has started since his freshman year
K: Louie Sakoda, Jr., Utah - I would have given the nod to Chris Manfredini of TCU, but dude - you can't miss five extra points!

DL: Tommy Blake, Sr., TCU - Led the conference with seven sacks and 16.5 tackles for loss.
DL: Chase Ortiz, Sr., TCU - Second in conference with 11 tackles for loss.
DL: Jeremy Geathers, Jr., UNLV - Tied for third in the league in sacks despite only playing in 11 games.
DL/LB: Jason Phillips, Jr., TCU, LB - Returning first team All-MWC pick
LB: Ward Dobbs, Jr., Wyoming - Helped make Wyoming's transition to a 3-4 defense last year a rousing success.
LB: Drew Fowler, Sr., Air Force - Led the league with 10.2 tackles per game.
LB: Joe Jiannoni, Sr., Utah - Fifth in the league in tackles and was named to the 2nd team All-MWC last year.
DB: Steve Tate, Sr., Utah - Fifth in the league in tackles and tied for second in fumbles forced.
DB: DeAndre Wright, Jr., New Mexico - Had the most passes defended (14) and second-most interceptions (4) in the MWC last year.
DB: Quinn Gooch, Sr., BYU - Leader of a secondary that picked off 18 passes last season - most in the conference.
DB: Brian Bonner, Sr., TCU - Yes, TCU is good defensively everywhere.
P: Louie Sakoda, Jr., Utah - Pretty easy. Of the returning punters, he had the highest per punt average at 44 yards a kick.
*** - I am aware of Kyle Bell, Brian Johnson and Beau Bell, but I am going to base the team off 2006 numbers. If a player misses substantial time due to injury, I'm taking a wait and see on how they come back.
Defensive player of the year: Tommy Blake, TCU
Offensive player of the year: Rodney Ferguson, New Mexico

Top questions:
1. Who are you and what have you done with my Air Force? So long Fisher DeBerry and the triple option, hello Troy Calhoun and ...and ... Calhoun has said the team will throw the ball more, but no one outside Colorado Springs knows how this team will look offensively.
2. Welcome back - let's see how you do. Brian Johnson of Utah, Kyle Bell of Colorado State and Beau Bell of UNLV all come back after missing much or all of last season. Bell blew out his knee during drills, crippling the Rams' rushing game last year. Johnson took the year off to fully recover from a knee injury after hurting it late in 2005. Bell injured his ankle midway through the season and didn't return.
3. Will it be enough? It's still a long ways away, but TCU will be favored in at least 10 of 12 games, the exceptions being road games at BYU (probable) and Texas (definitely). Would 10-1 be enough to put the Frogs into a BCS bowl game?
4. It's just presumed that new BYU quarterback Max Hall will be good. It's the equivalent to a Denver Broncos running back. But how good? Enough to keep the conference crown?
5. When will the .mtn be on satellite? That's the question that looms over every team's head. The longer the channel stays out of national sports bars, the farther out of the sports limelight the conference falls.

Agree with what John has to say? Think he's a big dope? Is he a giant homer and is unnecessarily blasting your team? Let us know by commenting below after registering.

< Previous: 'Searching for the Mtn.' | Next: 'Are you ready for some...' >

[Report this as objectionable content.]

SUBMIT COMMENT

Rate the above blog

Current Rating

Based on 1 user ratings.

Talk Back : submit comments to the blog

*Note: you need to log-in to add a comment or rating.

Thank you! Your comment has been updated.

Showing 1-4 of 4 comments

Submitted By: John Eisel

posted on 8/3/2007 @ 9:53:20 AM

(Not Rated)

It all depends on how Chris Peterson is as a coach. I could see Boise State as the Gonzaga equivalent if everything works out -

[Report as objectionable]

Submitted By: Kevin Villegas

posted on 7/30/2007 @ 11:14:13 AM

Rated Blog Entry

Agreed. I'm actually excited to see Wyoming play Boise State this year ... obviously Hawk is having a hard time at CU, but can his legacy at Boise State keep going two years after he left?

[Report as objectionable]

Submitted By: John Eisel

posted on 7/30/2007 @ 11:06:41 AM

(Not Rated)

By the end of the year, I think BYU would have beaten Boise State. The Broncos were one fluke interception return from being in the fourth quarter with Wyoming. Everyone talks about how great Boise was last year - but Utah under Urban Meyer would have beaten them soundly. Boise was great last year - and they deserve kudos for that drive against the Sooners. I had no idea what a statue of liberty play was before that game - I had just heard about it.

[Report as objectionable]

Submitted By: Kevin Villegas

posted on 7/30/2007 @ 9:38:05 AM

Rated Blog Entry

This must have taken you forever to plan out, but I have to say that I'm mightily impressed. I've never been a huge fan of MWC football, but I'm going to have to say TCU is going to be tough this year. Wyoming could pull it together and be the best team in the Rocky Mountain region ... besides Boise St.

[Report as objectionable]

Showing 1-4 of 4 comments

CONTRIBUTOR INFORMATION

John Eisel

Denver , COLORADO

John Eisel has posted 31 blog entries and 46 comments since joining on 9/14/2005. John Eisel's average blog rating is 4.93.

view profile » view other postings from John Eisel »

SAVE AND SHARE THIS BLOG ENTRY

digg	Google
del.icio.us	Yahoo!
reddit	Newsvine

What is this?

BLOG ENTRY RSS FEEDS

All blog entries

All blog entries in Green Valley Ranch

All blog entries by John Eisel

BLOG LIST

WANT TO WRITE FOR YOURHUB.COM?

Want to see the stories you write and the photos you shoot featured in the YourHub.com Thursday print section available all over the Front Range and with home subscriptions of the Rocky Mountain News and The Denver Post? All you have to do is register, then post a story or column, start a blog or tell everyonewhat events are happening in town. We will print the best stories, columns, event listings, photos and blog entries in our print sections.

Loading Ad