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Blog Entry 123 of 356 I'm Brian Olson and I approved this Blog.
Politics to life in general, a view from a slightly right of center/off-kilter guy.

Blog Url: http://denver.yourhub.com/~BrianBlog

Yo Rocky? Will there be a 16th round?

Contributed by: Brian Olson   on 4/23/2008

Hillary supporters carried on her " Rocky" theme at her victory rally last night, and someone made a lot of money selling boxing gloves to attendees.

Clinton and company had every right to celebrate. They beat the front-runner and odds-on nominee convincingly. Her victory was a joint effort by both campaigns. Clinton succeeded in dragging Obama down into the political mud. It's where she fights best.

Obama had an awful 5 weeks. Bad remarks made in the worst places, his continued reluctance to tell his pastor to stick it plus his association with a member of a terrorist group who by all rights should still be serving time in Florence. Plus an awful debate performance. Note to Obama: Just because Rev. Wright was a Marine doesn't cut it. Lee Harvey Oswald was a Marine too.

Despite talking out both sides of her mouth saying she'll get the troops home from Irag and Afghanistan, but if Iran acts up she'll respond with massive retaliation (code speak for nukes) she managed to convince enough Pennsylvanians she'd be a good commander in chief.

But let's get to the bottom line. Clinton won by 10%. But does it pass the "so what?" test. Not yet, and not likely ever.

1. Her campaign is broke. She's spending $1.15 for every $1.00 she takes in. Which doesn't say much for how she'd manage the federal budget. And all her contributors are tapped out. Late reports today circulated that her PA win brought in $10 million. But she'll end up spending $10.150 million of that. Brokebuck Mountain.

By contrast the Obama campaign is flush with cash. At least $40 million. His campaign base are the folks on main street kicking in a few bucks at a time. And they still have a few bucks left.

2. Her net gain in delegates will be very few. Which still leaves Obama with a big lead in delegates. Clinton will have to win every race left with at least 58% of the vote to come close to tie. She's in a dead heat in Indiana and behind double digits in North Carolina.

3. Her nose is growing. Campaigning today she claims she now has the lead in the popular vote. She's including Michigan and Florida, which don't count because of rules set by her own party. Hillaliar.

By any measure, it's simply too little, too late for Clinton. That said, there remains the issue of the uncommitted super-delegates. DNC Chairman Howard Dean wants them to commit by mid-June latest.

What they have to be thinking, is the point raised by Clinton. If Obama with all his money and a delegate lead can't "close the deal" in a state like Pennsylvania, how can he succeed in the general campaign?

It's hard to argue with the logic. The ultimate goal is the White House.

Stretching out the primary season to the end has been a good thing. Candidates are showing up in states like Wyoming and North Dakota, which are always ignored.

But what will Obama supporters do, the millions who kicked in a few hard-earned dollars to support their guy, if the super delegates get cold feet and vote for Hillary despite the will of the majority? The Clinton gang are experts at arm twisting and have much stronger will (and backbone) than Howard Dean ever will.

Personally I don't believe for a minute the party will "come together" for the general. Come Together is a song by the Beatles, not political reality.

If, and that's a BIG IF, the Democrats come to Denver and the convention is brokered, if Florida and Michigan make a huge scene, if lawsuits are flying, all that will be left of the Pepsi Center is a political hole in the ground.

Followed by a McCain landslide in November.

We can only hope.

The smart money remains on this being all settled by mid-June, Obama will be the nominee and Hillary will likely end up Senate Majority Leader for her efforts. Sorry Harry.

(The above opinion and analysis plus $5 will get you a cup of joe at Starbucks)


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Showing 1-2 of 2 comments
Submitted By: Gail Kirkegaard
posted on 4/24/2008 @ 5:20:05 PM
Rated Blog Entry
While I am not enamored with McCain, he's the last hope for the unborn. If a democrat wins, maybe I'll move to Montana. or someplace unlikely to be a terror target.
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Submitted By: Gladys Mercier
posted on 4/23/2008 @ 7:43:04 PM
Rated Blog Entry
A McCain landslide would be a tragedy. Our country is in big trouble and we need a big change.
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Showing 1-2 of 2 comments
CONTRIBUTOR INFORMATION

Brian Olson

Highlands Ranch , CO

Brian Olson has posted 356 blog entries and 15 comments since joining on 11/30/2007. Brian Olson 's average blog rating is 4.74.
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