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Amazon Kindle vs Sony e-Reader; demise of books?

Contributed by: Fran Miller on 11/22/2007

This week Amazon released its hand-held electronic book reader, just in time for Christmas shopping. It joins a line-up with the Sony e-Reader and others which challenge the 500 year old printed book.

While these readers differ in look and feel they essentially allow a variety of documents and images to be downloaded either for a fee from Amazon or Sony or for free from your own computer.

Jeff Bezos, the CEO of Amazon predicts that within five years all books will be available electronically. Is this the demise of books we have all been told to expect?

It has been preached for over a decade and yet book sales continue to rise. What are we to believe? Is it time to grieve or be angry about the printed books we love so much?

THE KINDLE AND SONY E-BOOK IN A NUTSHELL:

Conclusion #1--E-reader technology is where the television was in 1954. It took years living in a black-and-white World before color was made available. Within just a few years color TV all but replaced black and white. The color e-book is just around the corner.

Conclusion #2-- The cost of current e-Readers and Kindles is in the $300 to $400 range. But, you can buy a Dell laptop with color, CD, etc for $500. And the proven abilities of the iPod and iPhone demonstrate what is technologically possible in the under $500 range. The limitations of the abilities of e-books are being limited by business strategies of Amazon and Sony, not science. I would expect sometime next year, but no later than 2009 you will be able to buy a multi-function, hand-held device that will handle books, music, camera, GPS and long battery life. This might actually give the traditional "printed" book a run for its money.

The dominant issue is getting the content in an open systems format, not proprietary and not from sites who are infringing on intellectual property. That remains a future prospect.

Conclusion #3--The scanning of old books is a dead-end and most oftoday's e-books are just electronic page turners. The real value and excitement will come in the next generation of interactive, hyper-text, multi-media book, yet to be developed. We will quickly lose interest in reading old books in black and white and the e-books we purchased will be like 8-track cassettes. Most of them will end up in the landfill, and we'll write off all the e-books we purchased from Amazon that can't be transfered to the newer product we chose to buy.

Conclusion #4--E-books have their greatest potential in the schools where a child's backpack with 90lbs of books can be replaced with a 2lb e-book. (This idea thanks to Steve Nagel) Schools have a poor history of being on the leading edge and publishers will resist converting those $150 textbooks to $15 e-books, but it will come, probably by way of grass roots production of entirely new material from uber-teachers who will train themselves to use digital media tools under Creative Commons and on wiki-sites.

SO, WHAT SHOULD I DO THIS CHRISTMAS?

Recommendation #1: If you are an early adopter and don't mind throwing away $300 bucks (plus another $300 to buy some titles), go get an e-book reader now and play with it. But, just like that ink-jet printer that devours expensive cartridges, remember that the cost will not be in the reader, but in the online books you will be buying. Portability will be an issue and you will likely discard much of what you buy in the next three years. All of these vendors have a pathological tendency to want to lock you in with proprietary technology as long as they can. Don't expect the ebooks you buy from Amazon to ever work on anyone else's device. Amazon is clearly trying to set up a situation where you download only to their reader.

Recommendation #2: If you can wait, do so. This will unfold in the next three years. Meanwhile save up money for the digital age coming by buying fewer traditional books; you can use the savings to buy a really good e-book when the technology has ripened. In the meantime, consider borrowing more of your books from the library. Its a "hedge-bet" on the future and a way to cross the chasm from the traditional printed book to the new technology.

What Would I Buy?
If you want to buy lots of $10 books from the Amazon store, go with Kindle. If you want to be able to download pdfs and documents from your computer for reading in bed or on the bus, buy Sony.

* * * * *

A BONUS ESSAY---" WITH REGARDS TO THE EVER-PREDICTED DEMISE OF BOOKS "

If you examine the trends underlying books and e-Readers you see some interesting things:

1. The price of used books has virtually collapsed and other than rare books and certain technical, most used books almost have to be given away, just to get someone to pay the shipping so it doesn't go in the landfill.

2. The average author sells about 500 books and has more books in his garage than are on customer bookshelves.

3. The marginal cost of printing an additional book is about $1, less than the cost to ship it. Still publishers print very small production runs and only promote big name authors. Before the product life cycle has ended, publishers continue to print only as long as marginal revenues exceed marginal costs. This tendency towards over-supplying the market eventually reduce the value of an author's work to zero.

4. Today's book is largely literary in that it is 90% linear text with perhaps a few pictures or graphs. On the other hand, documents generated on personal computers, such as PDFs and digital media are more limited in their text (because people refuse to read more than snippets 250 words in length) but tend to be profuse with color, video, audio, animation and interactiveness.

5. The margin cost of producing a digital book is zero and distribution of it is virtually free. Publishers and authors can avoid most of the costs of shipping, packaging, shelving and wrapping. Carrying costs for publishers, wholesalers and retailers are immense for the traditional printed book.

6. Special ordering a physical book can take 6 weeks at the Tattered Cover and 6 seconds on Amazon.com.

So, slow down on buying books; sell the ones you have that are gathering dust and give up any notion of assembling a personal library hoping it will be your legacy. I know of many seniors who are so proud of the personal libraries they have assembled over a lifetime.

Sad to say, such libraries are virtually worthless. When you die, the executor will have a yard sale and your best book will be cherry-picked by book scouts. Ninety percent of what you acquired won't even be desired by the local library and it will be put on pallets with other donated books and sold by the ton. They will dumped as a commodity on the market.

It's a far cry from the time of Thomas Jefferson when he donated his personal library to the U.S. government to replace the Library of Congress burned by the British in 1812.

This convergence of trends arrives in the form of disruptive technologies and cultural change and it is a serious matter for many institutions which have been an integral part of our life. T

he Tattered Cover Bookstore is the largest independent bookseller in the U.S. and has a very loyal following. But, if I were Joyce Meskis, I would be going to psychics and getting crystal ball readings to figure out the future.

I just don't think a big building with an even bigger inventory will carry the day in the coming age of digital inter-active media. And, if I were Jamie LaRue who directs the Douglas County library system, I would use the defeat on the library referendum to go back to the drawing boards and rethink the Library of the 21st century.

Libraries are going to be challenged mightily and they had better have a compelling vision that does not depend on lending DVDs and children's books. I envision reference staff helping patrons write everything from term papers to Phd dissertations to e-books using the vast amount of information on the internet and the new digital tools.

Maybe we will publish our works through the library instead of YourHub or Amazon, who are trying to corral generators of literary works.

Now, you may be saying, I have heard all this before. There is nothing like a good book and a warm fire. You're right, there isn't. And, I would still like phones to be answered by real people and have my correspondence hand-written in the Palmer cursive style on 100% cotton paper.

There are many "high-touch" things in life that we have deep-sixed when something more compelling came along. The printed word is inherently hierarchal and linear. It is hard for the mind to follow and grasp. Interactive digital media, with its video, color, graphics, animation, sound, and a whole host of capabilities will create a trade-off curve not possible with the traditional printed book.

But, and this is a big but, those capabilities will only come with new offerings, not the scanning of old titles. Copyright restrictions aside, an electronic page turner device is of limited value when it comes to the millions of books currently in existence. If I can buy a title and have it shipped to me for under $10, why buy a black and white reader and wreck my vision. No, we are at an in-between time.

Once authors learn and switch to true interactive multi-media, (and they will or perish), you will get books that will blow your doors off. The question is whether individual authors can self-publish or whether the publishing of books will become as capital intensive as producing movies.

The next Microsoft will probably come from someone who can scale all of this down to the individual or small group, like they did with the personal computer. It'll take 10 years or thereabouts, not 20 years.

You are hearing all of this from a person who loves books and hangs around libraries and book stores the way Judge Nottingham hangs around the Diamond Cabaret. But, when all things are considered I am a realist. I say "go-long" on the electronic book (when it is open source and color) and "go-short" on buying and holding on to books.

AFTER-THOUGHT
I am reminded of the fall of Moctezuma and the Aztec empire which came about this time of year in 1519. Cortes and 450 soldiers landed and captured the king and slaughtered thousands of his warriors until the city of Tenochtitlán was taken and the empire subdued.

The Aztecs were caught off guard by the superior technology of the Spanish: the horse, sabre, and gun. And, as much as anything, the Aztecs had been led to believe in their myths that they should look for a return of the Gods, which would come from the East and appear as white men.

They mistook Cortes as that second coming.



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Showing 1-10 of 10 comments
Submitted By: Fran Miller
posted on 11/25/2007 @ 8:07:47 AM
Rated Story
Jay Montie's comments are substantive and add value to what I tried to say. Mike Smith on the other hand is typical of guys who shoot the messenger because they don't agree with the article. It's the need to turn to pirate sites to get the content that is the issue. If you've been reading your homework on a Palm, I suspect you are already viewing the world with a jaundiced eye.
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Submitted By: Mike Smith
posted on 11/25/2007 @ 12:49:55 AM
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Yawn. Your "conclusion #2" is a seriously behind the times, as such devices with the specs you list (books, music, camera, etc.) have been available from companies like Palm for years. I've been reading books in pdf and other ebook format for many years on my various handheld devices, but it's a constant frustration the lack of availability - forcing me to turn to pirate sites for lack of better mainstream availability of books in downloadable format. =(
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Submitted By: Jay Montie
posted on 11/24/2007 @ 6:00:49 PM
(Not Rated)
Excellant story... You hit the nail on the head. But you could amplify one thing, a "Good book and a fire" may end up with "good books" as fuel for the fire in this age of high-cost fuel.(that said by a lover & collector of books who cringes at the thought) I've been collecting paper and ink books since long before my grandparents library came up for grabs, and e-books, (usually pdf or txt format) since about 1998. As you've so accurately assessed, my large library is now diminishing to sentimental and rare favorites. I still prefer the tactile experience of a "paper and ink" document, but most aquisition will occur on my computer, with a side branch into audio books (I've about 200 of those that walk with me on my mp3 player). After all, I can take an entire library with me on a trip in my laptop, and when I walk or run, I can listen to a classic, or best seller as I pant to catch my breath. The book is dead, long live the book, and hurrah for technology. jf
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Submitted By: Fran Miller
posted on 11/24/2007 @ 5:54:22 PM
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Steve: You are ever so right about the kids and the laptops,something I didn't even think of. And your harsh dispensation of ratings says you don't grade on a curve or believe in grade inflation either.
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Submitted By: Steve Nagel
posted on 11/24/2007 @ 4:30:14 PM
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Textbooks are the place to start the ebook revolution. Imagine 90 lb. kids could be carrying 2 lb. laptops instead of 70 lbs. of books.
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Submitted By: Fran Miller
posted on 11/24/2007 @ 2:42:41 PM
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DECIDED TO RESTRUCTURE THE PIECE FOR PEOPLE WHO DON'T HAVE TIME TO READ A LOT OF NONSENSE AND WANT JUST THE FACTS.
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Submitted By: Fran Miller
posted on 11/24/2007 @ 2:26:02 PM
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The only way electronic books can compete against the "high touch" effects of a book, smell, touch, feel, sight, is to offer a superior experience. I predict that will come in providing interactivity (hyper-text) graphics, color, imagery, sound and other things that are sensual. We gave up a lot when we went to voice mail and email but we did it because of other factors that were compelling. The linear nature of conventional print will struggle against the new way of organizing information in digital media. The e-book will eventually require significantly more development than the conventional book.
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Submitted By: Gordon Hollis
posted on 11/24/2007 @ 9:49:41 AM
(Not Rated)
The physical book is as permanent as you are. You have made the book your "own" by working through it, feeling the heft of the book in your hands while respecting its mind. It remains your own for as long as it on your shelf. An e-book is just fine for spontaneous, developing and impermanent texts like this article (and my response).
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Submitted By: Fran Miller
posted on 11/24/2007 @ 8:42:43 AM
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Rather than taking a write-off, I would put them all out on Amazon.com. You can "Sell Your Stuff" with no listing fee. You might even make enough to buy a Kindle and experiment with the new technology. If you donate them, they will just get dumped en-masse onto the internet's ebay or Amazon anyway. Better to sell them and give a donation to a charity of your choice.
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Submitted By: Gary Greeno
posted on 11/24/2007 @ 6:32:12 AM
(Not Rated)
Excellent insight, well written fun read! Why not donate your old books and take the write off? Gary
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Showing 1-10 of 10 comments
CONTRIBUTOR INFORMATION

Fran Miller

Parker , CO

Fran Miller has posted 106 stories and 14 comments since joining on 9/28/2007. Fran Miller 's average story rating is 4.78.
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