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YourHub.com \\ Westminster \\ Stories \\ Sound Off \\ Politics

Hartman: Jeffco population growth stagnant

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Contributed by: Kathy Hartman on 4/12/2008

Growth / "Smart Growth"
How fast is Jeffco growing? Some people think it is growing too fast, others not fast enough. Before suggesting what I think, a little quiz is in order. Since 2000, how fast has Jeffco grown?

a) 10% annually
b) 20% annually
c) 5% annually
d) Less than 1% annually

According to the US census, the correct answer is d: less than 1% annually. Actually it's a lot less - 0.3% to be exact. I suspect that number will surprise a lot of people, who assume the number is much higher.

Compare that to our surrounding counties:
· Adams 19.1%
· Arapahoe 9.9%
· Broomfield 15.1%
· Boulder 4.6%
· Denver 2.4%
· Douglas 50.0%
· Park 18.1%
· Statewide 10.5%

Please note that Jeffco's growth is lower than Boulder County, often thought of as the capital of no-growth.

There are some disturbing trends, however, in other growth. Jeffco Public School students who qualify for free or reduced cost lunches have grown from 14% to 25%, an increase of 78%. Jail population has grown from 556 to 1366, an increase of 146%. Admittedly, this followed the expansion of the jail to allow for more prisoners, but the increase in space cannot be solely, or even largely, responsible for the increase in jail census.

On the more positive side, assessed value throughout the county has grown from $4,978 million to $7,291 million, an increase of 46%. But this increase in value does not mitigate the costs of an increasing population of poor families and jail inmates.

Why is this happening? I cannot say definitively, but my assessment is that, while other counties were adding lots of business parks, newer housing, and mixed use development, Jefferson County has aged in place. Our "starter homes" are older, smaller, and with fewer amenities than starter homes in other counties. Outside of our mountain areas, we have relatively little executive housing, and so high income families that do not want the rigors of a mountain lifestyle are largely living in newer executive homes in neighboring counties. And perhaps most importantly, we have not added significant employers, so living in Jeffco generally involves commuting to somewhere else to work. Over half our working residents leave the county to work every day.

So what should we do next? First, rampant growth is not going to occur, if for no other reason, then we have relatively little (compared to other counties) developable land. To the extent that we do have land, we want to encourage very high quality development, with an emphasis Class A office and industrial park facilities that will attract our growing alternative energy, medical, aerospace, and aeronautic industries. These commercial programs pay 3.5 times the property taxes of residential development, providing great support to our schools and county programs. Green building should be a priority in these projects.

Redevelopment of older areas should also be a priority, especially along the new FastTracks lines. But it should be noted that redevelopment is very difficult, as potential developers face the prospect of trying to buy multiple small properties to create a project with enough size and scope to make a difference. If you have seen any of the coverage of RTD's efforts to acquire the property it needs to complete the West Corridor, you have some idea of how hard it is to acquire property for redevelopment. Added to that is the fact that much of the infrastructure - water, sewer, roads - is old and must be replaced, and you have a project that is potentially far more expensive than a similar project in a "green field." It should be pointed out that most of the successful redevelopments in the last 20 years in the metro area involved single large properties - Villa Italia, the Lowry Air Force Base, and Stapleton come to mind.

I am not arguing against redevelopment. I support it. It is crucial to Jefferson County's future. I am just pointing out why developers tend to look for green fields. Eventually the cost of building new roads and the high cost of gasoline will help change the economics of continuing to build further and further away from the center of the metro area, which should help Jeffco, and especially the older areas of the county which are close to downtown. But as of this writing, the economics still favor green fields over infill.

As your Commissioner, I will continue to champion Open Space and responsible development. But I cannot oppose all development, especially larger scale, primarily commercial development. I believe doing so hurts our county, our schools, and our future.

(PS. As I write this, two very contentious land use cases are in mid-hearing with the Board of County Commissioners, Lyons Ridge and The Rock Southwest Baptist Church. NOTHING in this newsletter should be construed to be an opinion or a comment on either case.)

South Jeffco Town Hall - Growth, Smart Growth, and Your Vision for Jeffco
I will host the next South Jeffco Town Hall will be held Saturday, April 19th, from 9-11 am at the Peak Recreation Center. I want to hear what you thing about growth in Jefferson County, and any other areas of concern.

Mountain Area Town Hall - Saturday, April 26th, Aspen Perk
The next Mountain Area Town Halls will be Saturday, April 26th, from 11am to 1 pm at the Aspen Perk Coffee House, on Highway 285 just south of the King Soopers in Aspen Park. Note the time change. There is no program - drop in, have some coffee, share your issues, or just visit.

Mulligans for Mutts
The Table Mountain Animal Center Foundation is hosting a golf tournament on Monday, June 16th at the Lakewood Country Club. Registration opens at 1pm, the putting green at 1:30, and the shotgun start is at 2:30. Your registration includes dinner. Broncos alumni Billy Thompson and Larry Brunson will be among the golfers. I'll be helping out in ways that don't involve swinging a golf club. For more information, and to register on-line, go to: http://tablemountainanimals.org/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=75&Itemid=113

I Welcome your Input and Comments:
Contact me at Kathy@kathyhartman.org or at khartman@jeffco.us (an official County email address - no blatantly political items, please.). Thanks for your interest.

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